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Baltimore Series – Game 2 Recap – Game 3 Preview

July 29, 2012

Quick Hit:


After the game Friday night, Saturday nights game was a walk in the park to watch.

Bartolo Colon was Good Bartolo last night even though he scattered seven hits over five and two-thirds innings. He led the pitchers with a .278 WPA. I will say this about Bartolo, I look at the following strikezone plot and I have no idea how he shutout a team for nearly six innings:
Offensively Yoenis Cespedes contributed the most by WPA, accumulating a .123 with a pLI of .84. Weeks and Sogard round out the top three with a .079 and a .060 respectively.

Sunday Probables 

As confident as I felt about yesterdays game, I feel even more so about today’s game.

Wei-Yin Chen has been a nice little addition to the Orioles starting rotation this year. Coming into today’s game he is 8-6 with a 3.82 ERA and already accrued 1.6 WAR. However, his FIP and xFIP, and his inability to get ahead of batters, betray him. While his ERA is a respectable 3.82 his FIP/xFIP sit at 4.28/4.47, and I feel that could be closer to his true talent.

His F-strike% (first pitch strike percentage) ranks 16th-worst in the league. This forces him to try to get back into counts with his fastball, which he throws 55% of the time. That, coupled with a paltry 37.9 GB% and you have a recipe for disaster. Add in the fact that he will give up his fair share of walks and you have a good shot at a sweep.

By frequency he throws fourseam fastball, changeup, slider, sinker, curve. Expect to see him work off of the fastball exclusively with a lot of fastballs and changeups back-to-back.

Travis Blackley has been such a wonderful little surprise for the Athletics. With his ability to keep the ball down in the zone will help keep the ball in the park today. Keep an eye out for his curveball, it’s a thing of beauty.



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